A Hybrid Approach to Stock Market Forecasting with LSTM, Modified Complex Variational Mode Decomposition, and Secretary Bird Optimization Algorithm

Accurate and reliable stock price prediction is both a formidable and essential task in financial markets, requiring the use of advanced techniques. This paper presents an innovative approach that integrates Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks with Modified Complex Variational Mode Decomposition (MCVMD) for preprocessing and the Secretary Bird Optimization Algorithm (SBOA) for hyperparameter optimization. In the preprocessing phase, MCVMD decomposes stock price time series into intrinsic mode functions, effectively capturing complex patterns and reducing noise. To enhance predictive performance, SBOA optimizes both the hyperparameters of the LSTM network and the decomposition parameters of MCVMD. The proposed methodology is evaluated on datasets from six companies: Ferrari NV (RACE) and Intesa Sanpaolo (ISP) from Italy, Amadeus IT (AMA) and Repsol (REP) from Spain, and Hitachi Ltd (۶۵۰۱) and Chugai Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (۴۵۱۹) from Japan. Results show that the LSTM-MCVMD-SBOA model achieves lower error values compared with conventional benchmarks including ARIMA-GARCH, vanilla LSTM, Long Short-Term Memory-Particle Swarm Optimization (LSTM-PSO), and Long Short-Term Memory-Sine Cosine Algorithm (LSTM-SCA). Compared with these alternatives, SBOA was selected because of its superior balance between exploration and exploitation, inspired by secretary bird hunting and evasion behavior, which enables efficient search in complex optimization landscapes. Overall, the proposed model demonstrates significantly improved predictive accuracy over conventional methods, highlighting the efficacy of combining advanced decomposition with nature-inspired optimization for stock market forecasting.

کلیدواژه ها:

Stock market ، Optimization Algorithm ، long short-term memory ، Prediction ، neural networks