Seismic Risk Analysis of Oil and Gas Process Plants

This paper presents a systemic approach to seismic risk analysis of process plants. The importance of this research stems from the enormous impacts of previous earthquakes on such infrastructure and its ripple effect on the economy. Examples are the Tupras refinery under the ۱۹۹۹ Kocaeli, Turkey earthquake and the JX Nippon refinery under the ۲۰۱۱ Tohoku, Japan earthquake. The proposed approach integrates multiple probabilistic models and Monte Carlo sampling to analyze the seismic risk of process plants. The probabilistic models comprise seismic hazard and risk models. Hazard models simulate the occurrence, magnitude, and rupture area and location of earthquake events and the ensuing ground shaking intensity at the location of components of the plant. Risk models include damage, repair cost, repair time, functionality, process network, restoration time, and production disruption, from which the loss exceedance probability over the timespan under consideration is computed. The proposed approach is showcased through a comprehensive application to a virtual process plant under several sources of seismicity. The primary results are the fragility curve and the probability distribution of total loss of the plant. The results provide plant managers with information on the vulnerability and the future probable losses of the plant under earthquakes.

کلیدواژه ها:

Process plants ، seismic hazard ، seismic risk ، probabilistic modeling ، Monte Carlo sampling