Deterministic and Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis of Kunduz Airport (Afghanistan)

This study presents the first site-specific seismic hazard assessment of Kunduz Airport, a critical infrastructure located in the seismically active Alpine–Himalayan belt of northeastern Afghanistan. Both deterministic seismic hazard analysis (DSHA) and probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) are employed to estimate peak ground acceleration (PGA), incorporating historical and instrumental seismicity data, regional tectonic frameworks, and local soil conditions (Vs۳۰ = ۲۵۰–۳۰۰ m/s). The analysis utilizes regionally calibrated ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) from the NGA-West۲ suite within a logic-tree framework to account for epistemic uncertainties. The PSHA results yield a median PGA of ۰.۴۱۱g for a ۲% probability of exceedance in ۵۰ years (return period ~۲۴۷۵ years), while the DSHA indicates a maximum PGA of ۰.۴۱g, primarily governed by the Chaman fault. The Central Badakhshan and Takhar faults are also identified as major seismic sources contributing to site hazard. A comparative evaluation of international seismic design codes (Iranian Standard ۲۸۰۰, ASCE ۷-۱۶, Eurocode ۸) reveals notable discrepancies in spectral acceleration and base shear values, emphasizing the necessity of local code calibration for performance-based design (PBD) of essential facilities in Afghanistan. Unlike previous regional studies such as Bakhshi et al. (۲۰۲۵), this research incorporates updated GMPE logic trees, nonlinear soil classification, and direct code-spectrum comparisons, offering a robust and localized hazard framework. The results contribute to seismic code development and risk mitigation planning for vital transportation infrastructure in Afghanistan.

کلیدواژه ها:

Seismic hazard analysis ، Kunduz Airport ، Deterministic approach ، Probabilistic approach ، Peak Ground Acceleration ، Seismic Risk Mitigation