Multi-Hazard Risks of Infrastructural Flood Management: Unveiling Socio-Water Policy Dynamics

Managing water extremes is no longer only a question of engineering design but understanding the multi-hazard risks produced when infrastructures, water policies, and downstream society interact. Dams and levees reduce immediate flood impacts, yet they also reshape human-water relations in ways that can generate new behaviors, risks, and compound vulnerabilities. This study develops a socio-hydrological perspective on multi-hazard risks arising from flood management infrastructure and operational decision-making, with the Dez Dam in southwest Iran as a critical case. A stylized socio-hydrological framework is introduced to capture how the construction of dams and levees gradually faded flood risk awareness. Findings show that declining flood frequency eroded preparedness and encouraged intensive floodplain development. Furthermore, successive droughts heightened 'drought memory,' driving managers to store water above the Flood Control Rule Curve. When the ۲۰۱۶ extreme flood struck, emergency releases overwhelmed downstream levees, magnifying damages. The study identifies multi-hazard risks rooted in infrastructure construction and socio-water policies dynamics, and calls for future research on probabilistic assessment and dynamic modeling to guide adaptive governance.

کلیدواژه ها:

System Dynamics ، Levee ، Reservoir Dam ، Risk Awareness ، Flood and Drought Memory