A System Dynamics Approach to Evaluating Tehran’s Urban Social Sustainability

Cities face complex economic, environmental, and social challenges. Among these, social sustainability—centered on human well-being—is a key pillar of sustainable development yet often receives less attention than environmental and economic factors. This study applies system dynamics to analyze social sustainability in Tehran, utilizing key performance indicators (KPIs) from the U۴SSC (United for Smart Sustainable Cities) framework. A ۱۷-year historical dataset (۲۰۰۶–۲۰۲۲) validates the model, enabling forecasts and scenario testing aligned with Iran’s Seventh National Development Plan (۲۰۲۳–۲۰۲۷) and Tehran’s Fourth Development and Transformation Plan (۲۰۲۲–۲۰۲۵). Results indicate that integrated, multi-dimensional interventions significantly improve Tehran’s sustainability trajectory, with the social and cultural sustainability index rising until ۲۰۲۷ before stabilizing. Among scenarios tested, increasing the ratio of doctors per capita is the most effective but challenging intervention, while universal health insurance also demonstrates significant impact. Policies addressing traffic fatalities and cultural centers provide marginal improvements, whereas fixing the Gini coefficient at ۰.۳۵ suggests reduced sustainability compared to baseline predictions. Given practical constraints, the comprehensive scenario—integrating feasible interventions—emerges as the optimal strategy for advancing sustainable urban development. These findings highlight the critical role of health equity and human-centric policies in achieving long-term urban sustainability.

کلیدواژه ها:

Urban Social Sustainability ، U۴SSC Framework ، System Dynamics ، Policy Analysis ، Tehran