Reliability Analysis of Hybrid Renewable Energy Systems Under Grid Instability Conditions Case Study Iran

The integration of hybrid renewable energy systems into power grids experiencing instability presents complex reliability challenges that require sophisticated analytical frameworks beyond conventional assessment methodologies. This research develops an advanced probabilistic reliability assessment framework that combines stochastic uncertainty quantification with deterministic power flow analysis to evaluate hybrid renewable energy system performance under grid instability conditions. The methodology employs hybrid Monte Carlo-Newton-Raphson approaches that achieve ۷۵% improvement in key reliability metrics compared to conventional methods, while incorporating bio-inspired optimization algorithms for optimal system configuration under uncertainty. Our country serves as a comprehensive case study due to its exceptional renewable energy potential of over ۴۲,۰۰۰ MW combined with grid infrastructure challenges created by unjust international sanctions that have impeded access to modern technologies. The analysis reveals that Iran possesses substantial renewable energy resources including ۲۵,۳۰۰ MW of solar capacity and ۱۰۰ GW of wind potential, while facing grid stability challenges due to infrastructure constraints and increasing renewable penetration under international restrictions. Despite these challenges caused by external factors, our nation has demonstrated remarkable resilience through domestic innovation and technological self-sufficiency. The research demonstrates that optimized hybrid configurations can achieve Loss of Load Expectation values of ۵ hours per year and Expected Energy Not Served values of ۲۰۰ MWh per year under moderate grid instability scenarios. Advanced optimization algorithms including Dandelion Optimizer and Hippopotamus Optimization demonstrate ۱۵-۲۰% performance improvements over traditional genetic algorithms. The findings contribute novel insights for renewable energy integration in emerging markets facing grid modernization challenges while establishing standardized reliability assessment protocols for high renewable penetration scenarios.

کلیدواژه ها:

Hybrid renewable energy systems ، grid instability ، reliability analysis ، Monte Carlo simulation ، Iran renewable energy ، optimization algorithms ، power system stability ، international sanctions