ارائه الگوی خط مشی گذاری نوین بر اساس فراترکیب الزامات ژئوپلیتیکی: رویکرد آینده پژوهانه

Background and Purpose: The contemporary world is experiencing a geopolitical "transitional period" in which traditional paradigms based on state-centrism and hard power have lost their efficacy. The emergence of new imperatives, such as techno-geopolitics, the centrality of identity (Geoculture), and the rise of non-state actors, has confronted policymakers with a fluid and unpredictable strategic environment. The primary objective of this research is to explain the nature of these new imperatives and to propose an effective policymaking model for adapting to this new context.Methodology: This study employs a qualitative approach, utilizing the meta-synthesis method based on the Sandelowski and Barroso model. The analytical corpus consists of ۶۱ specialized documents, including peer-reviewed academic articles and credible strategic reports, whose findings were systematically extracted, classified, and synthesized.Findings: The findings reveal that four key imperatives (technological, identity, network, and geoeconomic) are redefining the concepts of power, sovereignty, and territory. This transformation is compelling policymakers to evolve from the traditional "Westphalian Actor" model to a new "Networked, Future-Oriented Actor" paradigm.Conclusion: The new conceptual model for the policymaker is founded on capabilities such as systems thinking, mastery of smart power, multi-faceted diplomacy, and the use of futures-studies tools like scenario planning to manage uncertainty. For effective action in the new environment, strategic institutions must revise their structures and acquire these new capabilities.

کلیدواژه ها:

ژئوپلیتیک نوین ، خط مشی گذاری راهبردی ، آینده پژوهی ، قدرت هوشمند ، تکنوژئوپلیتیک