Dynamics of Marburg virus in the presence of burial and cremation practices: A fractional approach

Infectious diseases have long posed a significant threat to the smooth functioning of society. To mitigate their devastating impact, we have conducted a qualitative study of the Marburg virus (MARV) transmission using a novel fractional-order model. In developing this model, we account for cultural practices, specifically burial and cremation, which are crucial in shaping the spread of the virus. The model incorporates the Caputo fractional derivative to capture memory effects in disease transmission dynamics. We have established the existence and uniqueness of solutions, along with identifying the Marburg virus free equilibrium point. Additionally, we have derived the basic reproduction number and analyzed the conditions for local stability, using the basic reproduction number as a threshold parameter. We also established Ulam-Hyers and generalized Ulam-Hyers stability. To guide effective control strategies, we perform a sensitivity analysis to determine the most impactful factors in transmission, particularly those related to contact with infected individuals and deceased bodies. Numerical simulations in MATLAB validate the theoretical results and demonstrate that reducing contact during burial and cremation processes can significantly reduce virus transmission. This study offers a comprehensive framework for understanding MARV dynamics and provides valuable insights for public health interventions.

کلیدواژه ها:

Marburg virus ، Stability analysis ، Caputo fractional derivative ، Laplace transformation