The Role of Human Capital in the Innovation Development: MENA Countries

Innovation is a critical engine for economic growth; however, it remains underexploited in the MENA region. This study investigates the associations among the Human Development Index (HDI), Globalization Index (GI), and Gross National Income (GNI) per capita with the Global Innovation Index (GII) across ۱۶ MENA countries over the period ۲۰۱۳–۲۰۲۳. Employing wavelet analysis to examine time-scale dependencies, the study decomposes the time-series data to capture multifrequency correlation patterns. The findings reveal that HDI exhibits the strongest long-term correlation with GII (r = ۰.۸۸, p < ۰.۰۱), thereby underscoring human development as a pivotal factor in fostering innovation. By contrast, GI shows significant positive correlations in the short term (r = ۰.۷۸, p < ۰.۰۵) that weaken in the medium term (r = ۰.۷۰, p < ۰.۰۵). Additionally, GNI per capita displays a relatively weak association in the medium term (r = ۰.۵۸, p > ۰.۰۵) but strengthens markedly over time (r = ۰.۸۰, p < ۰.۰۱). Phase coherence analysis further indicates that HDI consistently leads GII across all time scales, while the influence of globalization is more pronounced over shorter periods, and income-based effects emerge predominantly over extended intervals. These results advocate for targeted education reforms, adaptive skill development initiatives, and healthcare investments tailored to the temporal dynamics identified. By leveraging wavelet-driven insights, policymakers can design MENA-specific interventions that optimize human capital for sustainable, innovation-led economic growth, thereby enhancing the region's competitiveness in the global knowledge economy.

کلیدواژه ها:

GNI per capita ، globalization ، Human development ، MENA