The Stock Market, Consumption, and Inflation: Empirical Evidence of Iran

The Iranian stock market has recently fluctuated sharply; at constant prices, it increased ۷.۳ times from March ۲۰۱۹ to August ۲۰۲۰ but decreased to less than half the following year. The inflation rate also increased sharply. So, the question arose as to whether the stock market value, as a wealth, through an indirect channel of consumption (wealth), is one of the factors increasing inflation. This study used a structural equation model to investigate this issue using monthly data from ۲۰۱۶ to ۲۰۲۱ by studying two equations of consumption and inflation. Results show that although the stock market value is not one factor that affects consumption, GDP growth and housing, as well as wealth, are significant factors in consumption. Therefore, the stock market value through the indirect channel does not lead to inflation. In addition, the stock market value does not affect inflation directly. But Money growth and Exchange rate are the most crucial factors affecting inflation, and GDP growth has slowed inflation in Iran.

کلیدواژه ها:

Exchange rate ، Inflation ، Money ، Stock market ، wealth