Beyond Agreement Texts: The Triple Congruence Model and Explaining the Systematic Failure of Peace Agreements in the Post-۹/۱۱ Era

Despite significant international investment in peacebuilding, many comprehensive peace agreements fail to achieve lasting stability in the post-Cold War era. This study investigates this paradox by proposing the 'Triple Congruence Model,' which posits that peace durability depends on the alignment between an agreement's internal design, the temporal context (international norms), and the spatial context (regional geopolitics). Employing logistic regression analysis on a dataset of ۲,۱۴۴ peace agreements from ۱۹۹۰ to ۲۰۲۵, sourced from the PA-X and UCDP databases, we examine the effects of agreement comprehensiveness, signing era, third-party mediation, and regional characteristics on five-year success rates. Findings reveal that agreements signed post-۹/۱۱ and those involving third-party mediators are significantly less likely to succeed (odds ratios of ۰.۴۲۷۵ and ۰.۸۱۷۵, respectively), reflecting 'temporal incongruence' and the 'selection effect'. Conversely, comprehensiveness, measured by text length, shows no significant impact (p = ۰.۵۱۴). Furthermore, the analysis of spatial context indicates that regional geopolitics significantly influence success rates, with notable variations across different regions (e.g., Reg_Americas, Reg_Asia and Pacific, Reg_Europe and Eurasia, Reg_Middle East and North Africa show significant coefficients) and significant interaction effects between the signing era and specific regions (e.g., Era_x_Reg_Europe and Eurasia, Era_x_Reg_Middle East and North Africa are significant). These results challenge design-centric approaches, highlighting the primacy of contextual factors—both temporal and spatial-in peace outcomes. We advocate for context-sensitive peacebuilding strategies tailored to temporal and spatial realities.

کلیدواژه ها:

Peace Agreements ، Durability ، Temporal Incongruence ، Mediation ، Selection Effect