Climate Change Impact on Building Energy Consumption: A Case Study

Buildings and their subsidiary industries account for a significant portion of world energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions, making it essential to assess the impact of climate change on them. In this study, the impact of the RCP ۲.۶ and RCP ۸.۵ scenarios, as the potential scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, has been evaluated on energy consumption of a residential building. A detailed computer model was developed based on local climate data for a villa house to assess the changes in energy use under different climatic impacts. The scenarios are RCP ۲.۶ which represents the most optimistic scenario, assuming strong mitigation efforts, and RCP ۸.۵ which reflects the worst-case scenario with minimal climate action. The results showed that a ۴۸% decrease in gas consumption and a ۳۵% increase in electricity will be expected in ۲۱۰۰ according to the RCP ۸.۵ scenario. Meanwhile, in the RCP ۲.۶ scenario, gas consumption decreases by ۲۸%, and electricity consumption will increase by only ۱۵%. Iran is struggling with a severe energy deficit crisis exacerbated during the summer due to the government's failure to supply electricity. Providing a realistic estimation of climatic impacts on the energy consumption type and magnitude will help to develop better future strategies to solve this across the country.

کلیدواژه ها:

Building Energy Consumption ، climate change ، Global warming ، Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenarios