Dynamic Modeling of Resource Security Based on Water-Food-Energy-Environment Nexus in Sistan Region

The global community is expected to face crises related to water, energy, food, and environment in the foreseeable future. Water, environment, food, and energy are crucial and interconnected factors for the present and future of humanity in achieving sustainable development. This study aimed to investigate the relationships between water, food, energy, and environmental resources and to examine the effect of environmental policies on the security of water, food, and energy resources in Sistan region. For this purpose, a system dynamics approach was employed for a ۳۰-year period from ۲۰۰۶ to ۲۰۳۶. The model calibration results revealed that it would successfully simulate the overall trend of the data. Furthermore, the results showed that implementing environmental policies would reduce water resource security in all three scenarios compared to the base scenario. Specifically, with the restoration of the Hamoun Wetland (Scenario ۱), water security would decrease from ۴,۱۵۶ million m۳ in ۲۰۰۶ (base scenario) to -۶,۸۱۵.۰۷ million m۳ in ۲۰۳۶. That is a decrease of almost ۱۶۰ percent. Similarly, in the depression restoration scenario of the Hamoun Wetland (Scenario ۲) and the scenario of changing allocation priorities (Scenario ۳), water resource security would decline. However, applying these scenarios would slightly increase food security compared to the base scenario. In Scenario ۱, food security would rise from ۲,۲۷۱.۷۶ tons in ۲۰۰۶ to ۴,۹۷۸.۳۳ tons in ۲۰۳۶, while in Scenario ۲, it would reach ۴,۹۷۷ tons, and in Scenario ۳, it would reach ۴,۹۷۲.۸۴ tons, showing an increase of ۵۳% in all scenarios. According to the results, it is not feasible to allocate water from surface water resources to the wetland as it reduces water security. Therefore, protecting the Hamoun Wetland requires adopting an integrated approach and implementing a set of participatory policies.

کلیدواژه ها:

Dynamic system ، Environment policy ، Hamoun Wetland ، Water security