Developing Future Scenarios for Investment in Religious Tourism in Saudi Arabia Using a Structural Approach

The primary objective of this research is to develop future scenarios for investment in religious tourism in Saudi Arabia. Given the growing importance of religious tourism in the country's economy and its role in attracting pilgrims from around the world, this study aims to simulate and explore various future scenarios for this industry. The research employs a structural approach and scenario analysis method. Initially, key drivers affecting the future of religious tourism are identified, and based on two main variables—"Strategic Geographic Location" and "Government Policy & Vision ۲۰۳۰"—four scenarios for future investment in this sector are formulated. The findings of this study indicate that Saudi Arabia’s strategic geographic location and the government's development policies under Vision ۲۰۳۰ are pivotal factors that could significantly influence the future of religious tourism in the country. The scenarios presented in this research include "The Phoenix's Ascent" (success in implementing policies and leveraging geographic advantages), "Icarus' Fall" (challenges due to poor management and ineffective policy execution), "The Labyrinth of Daedalus" (external challenges and competition from emerging religious tourism destinations), and "Pandora’s Box" (weak infrastructure and declining geopolitical influence). These scenarios represent potential futures for the industry, considering both internal and external developments in the country. The main innovation of this research lies in using the scenario analysis method as a tool for simulating the future and combining two critical drivers—geographical and political factors to provide insights that could significantly assist strategic decision-making in this field. Additionally, the research recommends that policymakers and investors focus on strengthening infrastructure, implementing secure and efficient policies, and enhancing international partnerships to maintain and improve their position in religious tourism.

کلیدواژه ها:

religious tourism ، Saudi Arabia ، Vision ۲۰۳۰ ، SCENARIO ANALYSIS ، Strategic Geographic Location