Modelling the transmission of Mpox with a case study in Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)

This paper focuses on the dynamics of Mpox, a viral disease, in Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) by employing mathematical modeling and parameter estimation techniques. Utilizing optimization methods, the model parameters were calibrated to match the observed Mpox cases and deaths. The basic reproduction number (R۰) was calculated for each region, indicating the disease’s transmission potential, and a sensitivity analysis was conducted to identify key parameters influencing disease outcomes. Subsequently, numerical simulations were performed to assess the impact of intervention scenarios on Mpox cases and deaths. The primary goal is to create mathematical methods that can evaluate the risk of Mpox transmission and implement control measures in Nigeria and the DRC, potentially extending the findings to other countries. Results show that reducing parameters related to transmission and progression significantly decreases disease burden, highlighting the importance of preventive measures. These findings provide valuable insights for policymakers and public health officials in designing effective strategies to mitigate Mpox’s impact on human populations.

کلیدواژه ها:

Non-linear mathematical Mpox model ، Control measure ، Effective reproduction number ، Sensitivity analysis ، Case and death averted ، Immunization