The effects of war and military budget on the fluctuations of macroeconomic variables

Economic conflicts of interest, international agreements, demarcation, ideological beliefs, etc. have led to differences between countries and even regions, to the extent that numerous wars have occurred in the world from the past until now. Evidence in Iran and other parts of the world speaks of the destructive effects of wars. The present study examines the effects of war on macroeconomic variables in Iran, emphasizing both military and non-military expenditures of the government, within the framework of a DSGE model during the time period from ۱۹۹۱ to ۲۰۲۱. According to the results obtained from the variance decomposition of variables in response to a war shock, it was revealed that this shock explains ۶۹.۸۵% of output fluctuations, ۶۷.۸۳% of consumption fluctuations, ۶۵.۸۱% of investment fluctuations, ۷۰.۵۴% of government expenditure fluctuations, ۷۱.۲۸% of employment fluctuations, and approximately ۸۰% of wage fluctuations. The results of instantaneous response functions indicate the negative response of economic variables including production, consumption, investment, employment and wages and the positive response of government expenditures in response to a war shock.

کلیدواژه ها:

government military expenditures ، DSGE Model ، Business cycles