Designing a risk-based framework for prioritizing critical factors in drilling projects

Today, the increase in project costs and complexities on the one hand, and the escalation of risks in economic environments on the other hand, have led project managers to incorporate risk management into their project planning and control activities in order to reduce risk exposure and deviation from predetermined objectives. This study aims to present a comprehensive framework for addressing risks in drilling projects. In this research, a novel approach based on multi-criteria decision-making methods and mathematical programming is employed for the first time to analyze risk factors. The proposed approach consists of four main sections. In the first section, ۲۶ common risks in drilling projects, categorized into ۱۳ groups, were identified through a review of research and interviews with experts. In the second section, the best-worst weights related to the evaluation criteria for each risk were identified using the multi-criteria decision-making method. Subsequently, in the third section, critical risks were determined through the application of a new integrated approach based on FMEA (Failure Mode and Effects Analysis) and fuzzy GRA-VIKOR method. Finally, suitable strategies for addressing each risk were selected through the solution of a three-objective optimization mathematical model. The results obtained demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework in addressing risk factors in the oil and gas drilling projects.

کلیدواژه ها:

Risk Management ، Drilling Projects ، grey theory