Value Relevance of Cash Flow Statements in Syrian Banks: Evidence from the Damascus Securities Exchange

This study investigates whether the cash flow statements of banks provide valuable insights for Syrian investors. Using Ohlson's (۱۹۹۵) theoretical framework, which links stock prices to the book value of equity, earnings, and cash flow elements, the research aims to determine if factors like economic instability and investor behavior affect the value relevance of these accounting metrics. A model based on Ohlson's theory analyzes data from ۱۱ Syrian private banks listed on the Damascus Securities Exchange (DSE) from ۲۰۱۰ to ۲۰۲۲. The analysis includes cash flow statement metrics to assess the usefulness of operating, investing, and financing cash flows. The pooled OLS technique, with heteroscedasticity correction, is employed. Findings show that operating cash flows (coefficient = ۰.۱۱۳۱۸۱۵, p-value = ۰.۲۲۴) do not offer insights beyond earnings, indicating they don’t explain stock price variations beyond what earnings do. Moreover, substituting operating cash flows with earnings does not significantly enhance the model's explanatory power (R² = ۰.۵۲۶۳ vs. R² = ۰.۵۱۹۳). Similarly, investing cash flows (coefficient = -۰.۰۰۱۴۰۴, p-value = ۰.۶۳۴) and financing cash flows (coefficient = ۰.۶۸۳۶۲۷۲, p-value = ۰.۳۳۶) reveal no marginal value relevance. These outcomes may reflect the unique Syrian economic conditions, suggesting that cash flows do not improve earnings' predictive power for investors. Policymakers should consider promoting alternative performance metrics, such as adjusted earnings measures and loan portfolio quality, to better assess financial health in crisis contexts.

کلیدواژه ها:

cash flow statements ، Emerging markets ، Value Relevance ، Ohlson model ، Operating Cash Flows ، Syrian banks