Uncertainties in Seismic Hazard Assessment of Metropolitan Tehran

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is a foundational element for determining design forces for new buildings and assessing the safety of existing structures. Consequently, decisions regarding the protection of urban infrastructures hinge on the outcomes of the PSHA. In recent years, numerous seismic hazard analyses have been conducted in Tehran, often yielding significantly divergent results. Such discrepancies can mislead analysts and stakeholders involved in urban safety. This article investigates the primary causes of variability in hazard results and quantitatively expresses the uncertainty associated with these findings. To achieve this, the Cornell-McGuire approach for PSHA is employed. The study's results indicate that the selection of ground motion prediction equations (GMPE or attenuation relationships), seismicity parameters(λ), and minimum magnitude(mmin) are critical factors contributing to this variability. Therefore, it is recommended that greater care be taken in selecting these parameters for PSHA conducted in Tehran.

کلیدواژه ها:

seismic hazard analysis inputs ، seismicity parameters ، parameter distribution ، model selection