Epidemiology and time series analysis of snakebite incidence in Southwestern Iran (Shoushtar) ۲۰۱۷-۲۰۲۲

Snakebite incidents are a serious concern. approximately ۵.۴ million snakebite incidents occur worldwide annually, resulting in ۱۲۵,۰۰۰ deaths. This study focused on epidemiological surveys and modeling the time series data of snakebites in Shoushtar City from ۲۰۱۷ to ۲۰۲۲. This study recorded data on ۳۹۶ individuals who experienced snakebite incidents during the research period. Time series analysis in the medical field involves studying and analyzing data collected over time to identify patterns, trends, and relationships. Time series analysis and appropriate models were used to forecast the trend of cases for future months using BOX-Jenkins models. Findings revealed that the majority of snakebites occurred in men and rural areas. The trend remained constant until the end of ۲۰۱۹, and from the last months of ۲۰۱۹ to the end of ۲۰۲۰, it exhibited an increasing trend (during the peak of the COVID-۱۹ pandemic). The data had a seasonal trend, with the highest occurrences in hot seasons and the lowest occurrences in cold seasons. The age groups of ۲۵-۴۴ years and ۱۰-۲۴ years constituted the largest portion of the victims. The most frequently affected body parts were the foot (۵۸.۸%) and hand (۳۸.۸%). The majority of individuals sought treatment without delay. The best-fitting model for the available data was a seasonal ARIMA model in the form of ARIMA (۰,۰,۰) (۱,۰,۱)۱۲. Forecasting was carried out for the next ۶ months using the selected model, suggesting a decrease in snakebite cases compared to previous periods. Overall, time series analysis in the medical field is crucial in improving patient care, enhancing public health strategies, and advancing medical research. It can also aid in resource allocation and healthcare planning.

کلیدواژه ها:

Epidemiology ، Snake Bites ، time series ، Box Jenkins ، Southwestern Iran