Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources in Zanjan Province, Iran: Implications for Future Management

سال انتشار: 1404
نوع سند: مقاله کنفرانسی
زبان: فارسی
مشاهده: 80

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شناسه ملی سند علمی:

HAMYARCONF25_039

تاریخ نمایه سازی: 31 اردیبهشت 1404

چکیده مقاله:

A comprehensive analysis of CRU TS and Iran Meteorological Organization (IRIMO) data reveals an escalating threat of water scarcity in Zanjan Province, a semi-arid region critical to Iran’s agricultural sector. From ۱۹۸۰ to ۲۰۲۰, temperatures rose by ۱.۴۸°C, while precipitation declined by ۵۸ mm. The IPCC’s RCP۴.۵ scenario projects a further temperature increase of ۱.۸°C and an ۸% reduction in precipitation by ۲۰۵۰. An innovative runoff model, calibrated using GIS-based snowmelt mapping and Zanjanrud River station data, estimates a ۱۳-۱۸% reduction in runoff. Given that approximately ۸۵% of water is consumed by agriculture, proposed strategies include a ۲۵% expansion of Taham Dam capacity, ۵۰% adoption of drip irrigation, and implementation of Iran’s Sixth Development Plan, requiring a $۲۵-۳۰ million budget and farmer training. This study enhances the framework for sustainable water management in Iran’s arid regions.

نویسندگان

Mahya Hassani

Water Science and Engineering Department, Zanjan University

Farhad Misaghi

Water Science and Engineering Department, Zanjan University