Futures Studies of the Water Conflicts between Türkiye and Iraq

Currently, the conflict over the exploitation of Tigris and Euphrates has become one of the most important conflicts between Turkey and Iraq. Regarding this important issue, this article tries to answer three basic questions in this field: what are the key drivers of conflict over these water resources between Turkey and Iraq? Second, what are the possible scenarios of conflict over shared waters? And third, what are the optimal strategies to settle this conflict? The present research is applied in terms of type and is futures studies in terms of nature and method used cross impact analysis and scenario writing techniques. At first step, this article tries to identify the drivers of the conflict by referring to experts in this field and analyzing the findings using MicMac software. After identifying the key drivers, strong scenarios are determined by Scenario Wizard software. The research findings show that out of a total of ۱۸۹ situations on the scenario portfolio, ۲۸ are critical situations, ۹۳ are static situations and ۶۸ are favorable situations. Therefore, critical and static situations occupied a major part of the scenario portfolio. Finally, by considering the most possible scenarios and emphasizing the key drivers of conflict over shared waters between Turkey and Iraq, some strategies are presented to settle the causes of conflict.

کلیدواژه ها:

Futures Studies ، Tigris and Euphrates ، Iraq ، Conflict ، Turkey ، آینده پژوهی ، دجله و فرات ، عراق ، ترکیه ، منازعه