Climate changes impacts on precipitation and runoff: A case study of Mollasadra basin

Mollasadra basin is an area in Fars province, Iran, supplying an important part of water demands of the downstream and flood control. In recent years, due to climate changes, the region has faced many problems. Among the consequences of the climatic changes are the inadequate water supply for drinking, agricultural, industrial applications, drying of farms and wetlands, the formation of dust production fields, increased evapotranspiration, and other environmental problems. The study has investigated the climate change impacts on the runoff, precipitation, evaporation, and temperature of Mollasadra basin using Canadian earth system model (CANESM۲) under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP۲.۶, RCP۴.۵, and RCP۸.۵) scenarios. First, temperature and precipitation for the future period under the three scenarios studied. The results show that daily temperature increases in all months. Besides, precipitation decreases in January, February, March, April, May, and December, an increase in August, September, October, and November. In addition, it indicates a change in interannual of rainfall patterns and decreases the average of annual rainfall. Second, a rainfall-runoff model developed using the feedforward artificial neural network to simulate a future runoff and evaporation. Hereabouts, it observes a reduction relative to the average of annual observation rainfall.

کلیدواژه ها:

climate change ، Mollasadra basin ، precipitation ، runoff