Prediction of crowd disaster in metro station using stochastic differential equations. Case study: Saadi station – Tehran

The phenomenon of mass panic impulse and crowd disaster is a type of man-made crisis that, while being accompanied by significant injuries and deaths, is more likely to occur after events such as earthquakes, fires, terrorist attacks, etc. This dangerous phenomenon kills many people every year and causes serious injuries to many others. Considering the population traffic in metro stations, it is necessary to check whether these spaces are ready to bear the population load in a critical state or not. The findings of this research show that by using stochastic differential equations, the equation governing the behavior of the population in a metro station can be achieved and can be generalized to the corresponding spaces. The simulation was carried out using MATLAB software and the results showed that in the event of any incident that causes mass panic and the mass exit of people on a train at Saadi metro station in Tehran, there is a high probability of a crowd disaster. Considering the need to develop artificial intelligence in the field of online monitoring of population density in crowded environments prone to crowding crisis, in order to find a bridge between people counting cameras and crowd processing computers, it is inevitable to obtain mathematical equations that can be used by computers. The research under the heading 'Disaster Management' will be sent to the Secretariat of the National Conference on HEKMAT-BASED Architecture, Urban Development, Art, Industrial Design, Construction and Technology.

کلیدواژه ها:

Stochastic differential equations ، risk-based design ، crowd disaster ، metro station