Ecological niche modeling of Montivipera xanthina (Gray, ۱۸۴۹) (Reptilia: Viperidae) under current and future scenarios in Anatolia and Southeastern Europe with additional new records from Türkiye

Global climate change affects the physical, morphological, and behavioral characteristics of reptiles. Sometimes reptiles may undergo spatial changes to cope with global climate change. Under the influence of global climate change, reptiles show many different responses, including habitat shifting, range expansion, habitat loss, or extinction. In this study, ۱۱۷ locality records of Montivipera xanthina were used in conjunction with the program MaxEnt within the context of current (۱۹۸۱–۲۰۱۰) and five different future (۲۰۷۱–۲۱۰۰) climate change predictions (GFDL-ESM۴, IPSL-CM۶A-LR, MPI-ESM۱-۲-HR, MRI-ESM۲-۰, and UKESM۱-۰-LL) in two shared socioeconomic pathways (ssp۱۲۶ and ssp۵۸۵). Further, habitat probability analysis was conducted for all predictions. The gain-loss analysis suggests that M. xanthina will lose ۲۸.۹۰% and ۵۹.۸۹% of the current distribution range under ssp۱۲۶ and ssp ۵۸۵ scenarios, respectively. The Bosphorus, Taurus Mountains in the Mediterranean region, Marmara region, and the Peloponnese were recovered as suitable areas of occupation in all future scenarios.

کلیدواژه ها:

Habitat suitability ، Ottoman viper ، snake ، probability