Assessing the Effects of Climate Change on Temperature and Precipitation using CMIP۶ models (case study: Damghan, Iran)

Nowadays, one of the most fundamental challenges for human society and the natural environment is climate change. Human activities play an important role in increasing the temperature in different temporal-spatial scales. In this research, the sixth report scenarios of climate change by IPCC were used to evaluate the effects of climate change on the Temperature and Precipitation in Damghan, Iran. Climate change occurrence was predicted by using the HadGEM۳ and CanESM۵ models under the SSP۱۲۶, SSP۲۴۵, and SSP۵۸۵ scenarios. The rainfall data from the Damghan synoptic meteorological station and Damghan rain gauge station have been used for calibration and validation for the ۲۰۰۰-۲۰۲۰ period. Then, a prediction was made for the ۲۰۲۰-۲۰۴۰ period. To predict the future temperatures (۲۰۲۰- ۲۰۴۰), minimum and maximum temperature data from the Damghan synoptic station was used. LARS-WG۶ software was applied for the statistical downscaling of climatic data. Then, by using the predicted temperatures and rainfall under the climate change scenarios, the outflow intensity and pollution load of the reservoir water for ۲۰۲۰-۲۰۴۰ was presented. Considering the increase in the pollution load in some seasons and months and the downstream use of water, the construction of a water treatment plant and prevention of pollutants from entering the urban drinking water network is suggested. If management methods are planned and applied, the water quality of the dam reservoir can be improved.

کلیدواژه ها:

Climate change ، Greenhouse gases ، Damghan ، LARS-WG ، SWAT