The effect of countries' trade balance on the growth rate of export and import oriented companies

The impact of macroeconomic variables on the stock market has received the attention of many local and foreign researchers, but no research has definitively discussed the impact of these variables on a specific group such as export and import oriented companies. To this end, this research has examined the effect of variables such as country's trade balance, inflation rate, exchange rate and heavy oil price of Middle East oil exporting countries on the stock price performance of export and import oriented companies. For this purpose, stock price information of ۴۹۰۰ companies with foreign trade was collected for the period ۲۰۰۵-۲۰۲۳. This research has used the GARCH modelling method for its analysis. The results showed that the variables of trade balance and inflation had a positive and significant effect, and the variables of exchange rate and oil price had a negative and significant effect on the stock returns of the sample companies. The fluctuations of the current period have played a great role in the fluctuation and deviation of the stock returns of the sample companies. Also, the estimated coefficient of Garch showed that the changes are permanent or dependent on the fluctuations of the dependent variable.

کلیدواژه ها:

Export ، exchange rate ، stock market ، oil price