Energy Demand Forecast of Iran’s Industrial Sector Using Markov Chain Grey Model

The aim of this paper is to develop a prediction model of energy demand of Iran’s industrial sector. For that matter a Markov Chain Grey Model (MCGM) has been proposed to forecast such energy demand. To find the effectiveness of the proposed model, it is then compared with Grey Model (GM) and regression model. The comparison reveals that the MCGM model has higher precision than those of the GM and the regression. The MCGM is then used to forecast the annual energy demand of industrial sector in Iran up to the year ۲۰۲۰. The results provide scientific basis for the planned development of the energy supply of industrial sector in Iran.

کلیدواژه ها:

Energy Demand ، Industrial Sector ، Forecasting ، GM ، MCGM ، Regression ، واژگان کلیدی: تقاضای انرژی ، بخش صنعت ، پیشبینی ، مدل خاکستری ، مدل زنجیره مارکوف خاکستری ، مدل رگرسیون