Comparing the impact of crude oil trade and economic growth on the real exchange rate in Iran

This article examines the relationship between crude oil trade, economic growth, and the real exchange rate in Iran from ۱۹۷۹ to ۲۰۲۳, utilizing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach. The findings indicate that crude oil exports have a negative and statistically significant influence on the real exchange rate. Conversely, crude oil imports have a positive and significant effect on the real exchange rate. Additionally, the budget deficit from the previous period has positively impacted the real exchange rate. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has also demonstrated a significant positive effect on the real exchange rate. In contrast, the monetary base has shown a significant negative effect on the real exchange rate. Long-term analyses reveal that oil export variables negatively affect the real exchange rate, while crude oil imports contribute positively. Over the long term, GDP maintains a significant positive effect on the real exchange rate, whereas the budget deficit and monetary base variables do not significantly influence the real exchange rate. Short-term dynamics suggest that the real exchange rate from the previous period positively and significantly affects the current real exchange rate. Moreover, the budget deficit variable in the current period negatively and significantly impacts the real exchange rate. The monetary base also has a significant negative effect on the real exchange rate; Central Bank assets have been utilized as a proxy for the monetary base. Key Words: Oil exports, oil imports, real exchange rate, ARDL approach.

کلیدواژه ها:

oil exports ، oil imports ، Real exchange rate ، ARDL approach