Analysis of Climate Change Scenarios Using the LARS-WG ۸ Model Based on Precipitation and Temperature Trends

Global food production and water distribution are at risk due to increasing temperatures and changing precipitation trends. The main objective of the study was to analyze the climate trend and future projections in seven stations in southern Iraq. The period (۱۹۸۱–۲۰۲۰) was designated as a base period. The periods (۲۰۲۱-۲۰۴۰) and (۲۰۴۱-۲۰۶۰) were defined as the future two periods. The Mann-Kendall trend test was employed to assess trends utilizing XLSTAT. The study employed the most recent version of the LARS-WG ۸ model to forecast climate change by using three GCMs (ACCES-ESM۱-۵, HadGEM۳-GC۳۱-LL, and MRI-ESM۲-۰). These simulations are based on two scenarios (SSP-۲۴۵ and SSP-۵۸۵). The statistical indicators provided support for the outcomes of model calibration and validation, demonstrating its competence and reliability. The results of this analysis indicate that there is a non-significant increase in precipitation and a considerable increase in both maximum and minimum temperatures during the period (۱۹۸۱-۲۰۶۰). The downscaled result reveals an increase in monsoon precipitation in the range of ۲.۲۳۳-۲.۸۳۱ mm under SSP-۲۴۵ and SSP-۵۸۵, respectively, compared with the base periods ۱۹۸۱-۲۰۲۰ during the Near Future and ۱.۹۸۸-۲.۵۴۳ mm during the mid-future. Also, annual maximum/minimum temperature increases in the range of (۱.۱۵۶-۱.۵۴۹ °C) and (۱.۴۸۶-۱.۷۷۰ °C) during the Near Future. (۲.۰۹۵-۲.۸۹۲ °C) and (۱.۴۸۶-۱.۷۷۰ °C) during the mid-future, respectively, for SSP-۲۴۵ and SSP-۵۸۵. These outcomes can enhance understanding to develop strategies for mitigating and adapting to these impacts. Doi: ۱۰.۲۸۹۹۱/CEJ-۲۰۲۴-۰۱۰-۱۲-۰۱۴ Full Text: PDF

کلیدواژه ها:

Climate Change ، GCM Models ، LARS-WG ۸ ، Mann-Kendall Test ، Precipitation ، Southern Iraq ، Temperatures.