Benchmarking Classical and Deep Machine Learning Models for Predicting Hot Mix Asphalt Dynamic Modulus

The dynamic modulus (|E*|) of hot-mix asphalt (HMA) is a crucial mechanistic characteristic essential in defining the strain response of asphalt concrete (AC) mixtures under varying loading rates and temperatures. This paper aims to conduct a comprehensive investigation of classical machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) algorithms as applied to the prediction of |E*| and compare their performance with renowned |E*| regression models (Witczak NCHRP ۱-۳۷A, Witczak NCHRP ۱-۴۰D, and Hirsch). Eight state-of-the-art ML and DL algorithms are attempted with diverse structures, including multiple linear regression (MLR), decision trees (DT), support vector regression (SVR), ensemble trees (ET), Gaussian process regression (GPR), artificial neural networks (ANN), recurrent neural networks (RNN), and convolutional neural networks (CNN). A comprehensive database was assembled, incorporating ۵۰ AC mixtures, of which ۲۵ were from the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and ۲۵ were from the state of Idaho, USA. This database encompasses an extensive dataset of ۳,۷۲۰ |E*| measurements, associated with thirteen input features representing the proposed AC mixtures’ aggregate gradations, binder characteristics, and volumetric properties. This pioneering study surpasses existing research by examining various algorithms to predict |E*| on the same dataset, applying them with different structures and individual optimization to achieve optimal performance. The developed models are evaluated based on multi-stage assessment criteria, including the accuracy and complexity performance measures and rationality based on a sensitivity analysis. The multi-stage comparative analysis results reveal that the bagging ETs, GPR with exponential kernel, and DT record the highest prediction accuracy; however, only the bagging ETs yield the highest accuracy, lowest training and testing complexity, and rational trends throughout the sensitivity analysis. The research outcome has the potential to provide pavement engineers with advanced tools for predicting |E*| and, therefore, optimizing pavement designs and rehabilitations. Doi: ۱۰.۲۸۹۹۱/CEJ-۲۰۲۵-۰۱۱-۰۱-۰۶ Full Text: PDF

کلیدواژه ها:

Dynamic Modulus ، Hot Mix Asphalt ، Feature Engineering ، Classical Machine Learning ، Deep Learning ، Comparative Analysis.