The impact of financial development, globalisation and Dutch disease on the Iranian economy

The aim of this study is to investigate a new approach to Dutch disease. For this purpose, the effect of remittanceflows on the multidimensional financial development index in Iran during the monthly cycle of ۱۹۸۰-۲۰۲۳ has beeninvestigated. The non-linear approach of Soft Transfer Regression (STR) was used for the desired estimation. Theestimated results indicate the existence of a non-linear relationship between all research variables and themultidimensional financial development index of Iran. The estimation results of the STR model show that whenhuman capital, which is considered as a transfer variable, exceeds %۳.۳۷۳۲, regime change will occur. The estimatedslope parameter is also ۱۰, which indicates a relatively fast adjustment speed. The results of estimating the coefficientsof the variables included in the model also show that human capital has a positive and significant effect on financialdevelopment in both regimes. Although the remittance flow variable has a negative and significant effect on financialdevelopment in both regimes, its negative effect is much smaller at high levels of human capital than at low levels,indicating the asymmetric effect of remittance flows. Financial development. International variables, human capital,GDP positively affect financial development at low human capital levels, but these positive effects increase sharplyat high levels. In general, the results show that remittances received in resource-rich countries such as Iran did notcontribute positively to the development of the financial system, confirming the phenomenon of Dutch disease. Incomparison, the development of the financial system is determined by the results of GDP, LTGs, PRF and HCI.According to the results of this research, it is suggested that policymakers should invest in the development of financialinfrastructure, financial literacy training of human resources, etc. in Iran.

کلیدواژه ها:

Financial development ، Dutch Disease ، Iranian economy