Working Capital Management Model for Listed Companies on the Tehran Stock Exchange

This study aims to develop a working capital management model for companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange. The proposed model determines the expected level of working capital for a company, enabling it to create the highest possible value. Additionally, this model can be used to assess the efficiency of working capital management. The discrepancy between the actual level of working capital and the expected level serves as an indicator of inefficiency in working capital management. Initially, based on theoretical foundations and expert opinions, ۲۸ variables affecting working capital were selected. Then, using the operational working capital index, the research models were estimated using multiple regression and genetic algorithm techniques for data from ۱۵۶ companies over the period from ۲۰۱۱ to ۲۰۲۲. Influential variables were identified and filtered. Finally, suitable working capital management models were identified based on two criteria: (۱) the strong correlation between the errors of the fitted models and the working capital efficiency of the company, and (۲) the model’s accuracy in identifying companies prone to excess or shortage of working capital. In total, after estimating ۱۱۹ different models using regression and genetic algorithm methods, four suitable working capital management models were determined. The regression method resulted in models with an average accuracy of ۷۷.۲۷% and ۷۹.۵۴% for the dependent variable of working capital and the cash conversion cycle, respectively. The genetic algorithm method resulted in models with an average accuracy of ۸۹.۰۳% and ۸۲.۰۸%. The final model, with the cash conversion cycle as the dependent variable, was identified as the best model. It includes the variables of the previous year's cash conversion cycle, company-specific risk, gross profit margin, trade credit, growth opportunities, operating cycle, economic policy uncertainty, and exchange rate changes.

کلیدواژه ها:

Optimal working capital ، Excess working capital ، Working capital shortage ، Working capital efficiency ، Cash conversion cycle