Providing a novel approach in water resourcesplanning and management using system dynamicsmodel

According to the results of implementing different scenarios for analyzing the researchmodel, the final research outputs can be presented as follows:Scenario ۱: In this scenario, which considers the current conditions, it can be clearlyobserved that if policy ۱ is used, the trend of the water balance will be ascending until۱۳۹۸ (۲۰۱۹-۲۰۲۰) and will show a value of ۱.۱۵۹ trillion liters; however, from ۱۳۹۹(۲۰۲۰-۲۰۲۱) this trend will gradually decrease, and the drought crisis will begin. Also,policy ۲ has been very effective and has significantly contributed to the downward trendof the water balance; and finally, in policy ۳, as expected, this policy has also beenuseful and has provided very good assistance in preventing drought and delaying it withthe water balance. So that in a numerical comparison and summary, it can be said thatthe amount of water balance in ۱۴۰۰ (۲۰۲۱-۲۰۲۲) has reached ۱.۱۵۳, ۱.۱۴۱, and ۱.۱۷۰trillion liters under policies ۱, ۲, and ۳, respectively, from ۱.۱۴۱ trillion liters in thecurrent conditions.Scenario ۲: In this scenario, wet conditions are assumed, in which the improvement of thewater balance is greater than the current conditions and drought conditions by itself; andeven the increase in price in all three urban, industrial, and agricultural consumptionsectors does not have a significant effect on the consumption trend. According to theresults, the amount of water balance in ۱۴۰۰ (۲۰۲۱-۲۰۲۲) has reached ۱.۱۶۸, ۱.۱۵۷, and۱.۱۸۶ trillion liters under policies ۱, ۲, and ۳, respectively, from ۱.۱۴۱ trillion liters inthe current conditions.

کلیدواژه ها:

System dynamics model ، water resources management ، VENSIM