An Assessment of Drought Status in Kermanshah Township and an Investigation of Livelihood Capitals Influencing Farmers’ Resilience against Drought in the Region

Climate change is one of the most important challenges that influence different parts of human life. An important consequence of climate change is its effects on water resources and the occurrence of drought. Since the agricultural sector is influenced by drought, the present research aimed to evaluate the livelihood resilience of farmers to drought in Kermanshah Township, Iran. The research used both primary and secondary data. First, the drought status of Kermanshah Township was evaluated with Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Percent of Normal Index (PNI) and the Drought Indices Calculator (DIC) software package for a ۵۱-year statistical period. Based on the results, the years ۱۹۷۳, ۱۹۷۸, ۱۹۷۹, ۱۹۹۵, ۱۹۹۹, ۲۰۰۱, ۲۰۰۸, ۲۰۱۳, and ۲۰۱۵ were dry. It was observed that, as we approached ۲۰۲۰, the number of years with a negative SPI increased. Then, the dimensions of livelihood capital were studied with the focus group method in the form of three focus groups from the perspective of ۱۹ key experts. Data in this phase were analyzed by the content analysis method. The output of this phase was the development of a questionnaire for the final phase. Finally, to check the livelihood capitals influencing the enhancement of farmers’ resilience to drought in the region, ۳۸۰ farmers were selected by the multistage sampling method. The potential of the independent variables in accounting for the variance in the farmers’ livelihood resilience was checked by stepwise multivariate linear regression. Based on the results, the variables of financial capital, social capital, and human capital with beta values of, respectively, ۰.۳۷۸, ۰.۳۲۴, and ۰.۱۵۲ had the greatest role in capturing the variance in farmers’ resilience to drought in Kermanshah Township.

کلیدواژه ها:

Climate Change ، Livelihood Capitals ، Precipitation indices ، Standardized Precipitation Index