A Martingale-Based Approach for Predicting Peaks in Viral Diseases

Understanding the peak of disease outbreaks is crucial for effective response. It helps allocate resources, plan interventions, predict the trajectory, assess risks, and mitigate economic impact. Anticipating and managing the peak is key to protecting public health and ensuring a swift recovery. The COVID-۱۹ pandemic is the greatest threat of the century, due to high spreadability, infecting millions and killing thousands of people worldwide.In this paper, we propose MarPeak, Martingale approach to predict the peak points of the Covid-۱۹ pandemic in different waves. The contribution of this paper is threefold: First, a new data-driven approach is proposed to forecast the peak points of the Coronavirus disease using a statistical test based on Doob’s Maximal Inequality. Second, MarPeak can predict peak exit as well as inflection points. Third, we applied the method on actual data of Iran and India, which shows the effectiveness of our method for predicting peak points.

کلیدواژه ها:

Pandemic ، Covid-۱۹ ، MarPeak ، Peak exit ، Inflection point ، Epidemic