Future-Oriented Policy Making in Oil Exploration and Extraction Using a System Dynamics Approach

Over the years, the process of studying, exploring, and extracting oil has undergone numerous transformations. On the one hand, the limitations arising from the depletion of oil reserves and the increasing global demand for this valuable commodity, and on the other hand, the growing dependence of industries on fossil fuels, lack of integration in optimal consumption patterns, labor strikes in the oil sector, wars, and political unrest, and instability in the oil market have led major oil-producing countries to implement a wide range of policies to achieve optimal conditions for oil exploration, extraction, and consumption. Moreover, global concerns about the depletion of strategic oil reserves and worries about achieving sustainable and lasting security in the supply of this product make it imperative to seriously address policy-making in the field of exploration and supply. This paper attempts to study the past and present trends of oil exploration and extraction, examine the main and root causes influencing this process through a system dynamics model, and conduct a content analysis on the best policy-making approach for oil exploration and extraction. The Vensim PLE ۷.۳.۵ software was used to analyze the model components.

کلیدواژه ها:

System dynamics ، Non-renewable resource Management ، Oil exploration and extraction ، Future-oriented policy making ، Causal Loop Diagram