Modeling of Coronavirus Spread in Morocco using Statistical Approach: SIR Model Service Unavailable

The recently emerged Covid-۱۹ virus has caused more than ۶۵,۸۷۲,۳۹۱ infections and ۱,۵۲۳, ۶۵۶ deaths up to December ۸, ۲۰۲۰ worldwide. The disease continues to spread in all countries. The use of mathematical models in public health plays an important role in many aspects, such as rapid visualization of epidemiological information, monitoring, forecasting and estimating the spread of disease, and assisting in decision-making on pandemic prevention and control. The objective of this study is to show the role of SIR model in predicting the evolution of the COVID-۱۹ pandemic in the Moroccan kingdom and to estimate the time necessary for its disappearance. Thus, the results found following the use of the SIR model are almost similar to the results obtained by the Minister of Health in Morocco, so far we notice the rapid spread of this disease and ۱۳August ۲۰۲۱, the Covid-۱۹ will be ۰ confirmed cases. Thus, the calculation of the basic reproduction number R۰ gave a value of ۲.۰۰۳ which shows that the number of infected people does not stop increasing until a vaccine for this virus is found. In this case, the respect of the rules of hygiene and containment can lower the value of R۰ and the spread of pandemic.The recently emerged Covid-۱۹ virus has caused more than ۶۵,۸۷۲,۳۹۱ infections and ۱,۵۲۳, ۶۵۶ deaths up to December ۸, ۲۰۲۰ worldwide. The disease continues to spread in all countries. The use of mathematical models in public health plays an important role in many aspects, such as rapid visualization of epidemiological information, monitoring, forecasting and estimating the spread of disease, and assisting in decision-making on pandemic prevention and control. The objective of this study is to show the role of SIR model in predicting the evolution of the COVID-۱۹ pandemic in the Moroccan kingdom and to estimate the time necessary for its disappearance. Thus, the results found following the use of the SIR model are almost similar to the results obtained by the Minister of Health in Morocco, so far we notice the rapid spread of this disease and ۱۳August ۲۰۲۱, the Covid-۱۹ will be ۰ confirmed cases. Thus, the calculation of the basic reproduction number R۰ gave a value of ۲.۰۰۳ which shows that the number of infected people does not stop increasing until a vaccine for this virus is found. In this case, the respect of the rules of hygiene and containment can lower the value of R۰ and the spread of pandemic.

کلیدواژه ها:

Covid-۱۹ ، Morocco ، SIR model ، Basic reproduction number