Investigating the economic and environmental effects of cropping pattern optimization in agriculture

Water shortages have been intensified in the long run for many reasons, including wrong policies, successive droughts, and improper management and planning, especially in arid and semi-arid regions such as Iran, where the agriculture sector has harvested ۸۶% of renewable water resources. In this situation, optimizing the cropping pattern to minimize water extracted from the aquifer while gaining the maximum profit plays an important role in managing agricultural water resources. The present study investigates the effect of cropping pattern optimization on the sustainability of water resources and agricultural production in West Azerbaijan Province. This research has modeled two hydrological and economic subsystems using Dynamic Approach and statistical data of ۱۹۹۱-۲۰۱۸. After calibration by simple genetic algorithm and verification under extreme condition tests, the impact of scenarios was evaluated. The results showed that cropping pattern optimization reduced water demand by ۳۷%. With a ۲۳% decrease in the volume of water used, the Available surface water will increase by ۲۷.۰۲% and compared to the current cropping pattern, the Available groundwater will increase by ۷۸.۵۳% in ۲۰۵۱. Also, total production will increase by ۱۹.۹۲%, agricultural profit by ۲۶.۸۷%, and value-added of the agricultural sector by ۲۷.۱۱%. For evaluating the sustainability of water resources, it can be said that by optimizing the cropping pattern, the values of the Sustainability Index (SUI) will be positive and close to ۱. The Water Exploitation Index (WEI+) values will be very small, indicating a more stable level of groundwater and no water stress by ۲۰۵۱.

کلیدواژه ها:

Cropping pattern ، Modeling ، Optimization ، Sustainability ، Water resources