Investigating the impact of financial, economic and political risks and economic complexity on sukuk market development (NARDL Approach)

The main purpose of this research is to investigate the impact of various financial, economic, political risks and economic complexity on the development of the sukuk market in Iran. The data required to conduct this research based on the variables of the proposed model were used from the Capital Market Central Asset Management Company, the International Country Risk Guide (ICRG) database, and the MIT University website. The data related to the period of ۲۰۱۰-۲۰۲۲ is seasonal and EVIEWS ۱۳ software was used. The results of model estimation using Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model Approach (NARDL) show that the negative shock of political risk reduces the development of sukuk market in short term and long term. The negative shock of financial risk in the long term has a negative impact on the development of the sukuk market. The negative shock of economic complexity reduces the development of the sukuk market in the short term. The positive shocks of political risk, financial risk, economic risk and economic complexity in the short term and long term lead to the development of the sukuk market. Among the three types of risk, political risk and then financial risk have the most impact on sukuk market development. The error correction coefficient in this estimate is negative and statistically significant, which shows that ۰.۴۲% of the short-term imbalance is adjusted to reach the long-term balance every year

کلیدواژه ها:

Sukuk ، risk ، Economic Complexity ، NARDL