Developing a model to predict fraudulent financial reporting

This paper investigates how well the Beneish and Spathis models can predict fraudulent financial reporting. The coefficients of these two models were adjusted using the logistic regression and the newly adjusted models were investigated for the prediction of fraudulent financial reporting. This research seeks to design a suitable native model to predict possible fraud in financial statements. The statistical population included ۹۹ manufacturing companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange (۱۰۸۹ observations) during the years ۲۰۰۹-۲۰۱۹. The results show that the Beneish and Spathis models are not good at predicting fraudulent financial reporting, but their adjusted versions can predict it with an accuracy of ۷۲% and ۶۴%, respectively. The prediction accuracy rate of the extracted model based on the best explanatory variables is ۷۹%, which shows that it is possible to predict and discover fraudulent financial reporting.

کلیدواژه ها:

Fraudulent financial reporting ، Beneish Model ، Spathis model ، Fraud ، Financial Ratios