Asymmetric consequences of government spending shock with the effect of government spending effectiveness indicators on the country's economic activities; the role of periodic structural models

This article explains the mechanism of the asymmetric consequences of government spending shock with the effect of government spending effectiveness indicators on the economic activities of the country using SVAR structural vector autoregression model for ۲۰۱۹-۲۰۱۹. Based on the estimation results of the SVAR model; A shock from oil revenues causes a ۹% reduction in investment, ۴۵% production and ۱% employment, and a shock from the size of the government causes a ۰.۱% reduction in investment, ۳۳% production and ۶% employment respectively. will be Impulses coming from the government's current and construction expenses; It reduces production by ۱۹% and employment by ۹۰%. Generally; The impact of monetary and oil impulses in Iran's economy depends more on the inflationary state of Iran's economy; In such a way that with the increase of inflation, the effect of financial impulses (implementation of expansionary and contractionary policies) on production decreases and even at very high levels of inflation it can have a negative effect on real production. Considering the different infrastructures, models and economic conditions of Iran, a separate study of how the Iranian market is influenced by the uncertainty of the government's financial policies, the government's foreign exchange policies and investment costs can provide a correct view of the country's macro decisions. How production changes in the Iranian market as a result of these fluctuations.

کلیدواژه ها:

government spending ، production ، employment ، Economic Activity ، SVAR Model