Econometric Analysis of Projected Oil and Non-Oil Export Data for Sustainable Growth in Nigeria

Over the past four decades, increasing forecast emphasis has come to be placed on the potential importance of different sectors and their contribution to the sustainable growth of the Nigerian economy. A more common strand of research is existing studies that consider the resource curse hypothesis to show empirically, the actual relationship between natural resources and economic growth. However, these studies have looked at various resource endowment especially oil and metals, with just a few focusing on the non-oil export sector. A preliminary graphical study of the contribution of the non-oil sector to Nigeria’s GDP shows that over time, the linkage of non-oil export to the economic growth has been low (less than ۲۰%). Hence, this study will analyze the long-run relationship and also the importance of both oil and non-oil exportation and their impact to sustainable economic growth. The model introduced in this article uses the time series data for non-oil export, oil export, alongside other macroeconomic variables on gross domestic product (GDP). In order to adequately investigate the long-run relationship, statistical forecast was adopted to project the data for future years and thereafter econometric method was adopted to validate the projected data and analyze the direction of causality between the sectors (oil and non-oil) export and economic growth. The result reveals the possible short and long run interaction amidst sectors’ export and economic growth, based on the different tests conducted, in order to recommend policies aimed at boosting the level and significance of the sectors’ export.

کلیدواژه ها:

Sustainable growth ، Oil Export ، non-oil export ، Projected Data ، Nigeria