Daily Maximum Rainfall Forecast Affected by Tropical Cyclones using Grey Theory

This research aims to develop a model for forecasting daily maximum rainfall caused by tropical cyclones over Northeastern Thailand during August and September ۲۰۲۲ and ۲۰۲۳. In the past, the ARIMA or ARIMAX method to forecast rainfall was used in research. It is a short-term rainfall prediction. In this research, the Grey Theory was applied as it is an approach that manages limited and discrete data for long-term forecasting. The Grey Theory has never been used to forecast rainfall that is affected by tropical cyclones in Northeastern Thailand. The Grey model GM(۱,۱) was analyzed with the highest daily cumulative rainfall data during the August and September tropical cyclones of the years ۲۰۱۸–۲۰۲۱, from the weather stations in Northeastern Thailand in ۱۷ provinces. The results showed that in August ۲۰۲۲ and ۲۰۲۳, only Nong Bua Lamphu province had a highest daily rainfall forecast of over ۱۰۰ mm, while the other provinces had values of less than ۷۰ mm. For September ۲۰۲۲ and ۲۰۲۳, there were five provinces with the highest daily rainfall forecast of over ۱۰۰ mm. The average of mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of the maximum rainfall forecast model in August and September is approximately ۲۰ percent; therefore, the model can be applied in real scenarios. Doi: ۱۰.۲۸۹۹۱/CEJ-۲۰۲۲-۰۸-۰۸-۰۲ Full Text: PDF

کلیدواژه ها:

Grey Theory ، Tropical Cyclones ، Daily Maximum Rainfall.