Prediction of Potential Change in Land Cover and their Effects on the Temperature of the Land Surface: A Case Study of Khulna City Corporation, Bangladesh

Khulna City Corporation (KCC) has undergone the quickest urban development and expansion in recent times. These changes, including the change in land surface temperature (LST) throughout the area, have significant long-term effects. This research analyzed the effects of Land Cover Changes on Khulna City Corporation's LST (KCC). By using the Maximum Likelihood Classification Method, the Landsat Imagery investigation identified the Land Cover Chart and determined the LST for the years ۱۹۹۹, ۲۰۰۹, and ۲۰۱۹. It was modeled for the Simulation Land Cover for the year ۲۰۲۹ by using the classification results and applying the Multi-Layer Perceptron Markov (MLPM) models together. It then also modeled the LST for the year ۲۰۲۹ by using three thematic indices and multiple regression analysis. As a result, the Khulna City Corporation (KCC) urban area grew by ۴۹ percent between ۱۹۹۹ and ۲۰۱۹. Simulation results have shown that the Khulna City Corporation (KCC) would possibly experience a temperature range of more than or equal to ۲۶ ° C in ۲۰۲۹ if the recent pattern persists. For the Khulna City Corporation (KCC), the average LST for the urban area is projected to be ۲۷° C in ۲۰۲۹. The scenario shown in this paper would assist urban planners in quantifying the impacts of various LST change-related issues and thus preparing proper strategic measures.

کلیدواژه ها:

Urban Growth ، Land covers ، Land surface Temperature ، Cellular Automata Markov Model ، Multi-Layer Perceptron Markov Model