Covid-۱۹ Pandemic and the Banking Risk Mitigation: A Lesson from the Indonesian Credit Restructuring Policy

Countercyclical economic policy has recently been highly demanded to mitigate the risk of the COVID-۱۹ pandemic, such as the credit restructuring in the banking sector. The policy is necessary, considering that the banking credit risk continues to rise due to increasing loan repayment default of debtors affected by the pandemic. The increasing credit risk in the banking sector could elevate the economic condition to a high level of systemic risk. Therefore, this study aims to analyze the impact of the credit restructuring policy from the Indonesian government on the systemic risk from the banks’ exposure. We use the Marginal Expected Shortfall (MES) estimation to measure banking systemic risk along with the amount of credit restructuring, loan, asset, and other influential variables. The results revealed that only banks with big assets benefit from the credit-restructuring program because their risk values decrease coincide with the rise of their credit-restructuring amount. However, the benefit is invisible from the banks with small and medium amounts of assets. However, the overall credit restructuring policy succeeded in reducing banking systemic risk during the COVID-۱۹ pandemic. The policy permits the debtors to postpone their maturing credits so that the banking NPL level is still within a reasonable limit. The government response to the COVID-۱۹ pandemic varies from one country to another, while the credit restructuring policy from the Indonesian government is highly rated for the research investigation. The policy should be a global concept for banking risk mitigation during this unprecedented pandemic.

کلیدواژه ها:

Credit Restructuring ، Banking Risk Mitigation ، Marginal expected shortfall ، Covid-۱۹ pandemic