ENHANCED MONTE CARLO JOINT PROBABILITY ANALYSIS OF TIDE, STORM SURGE AND WAVE HEIGHT IN CHABAHAR

Marine structures are usually exposed to random hydrodynamic variables and the most important variables are usually wave height, storm surge and tidal conditions. Accuracy in these data helps the designers to improve their design and make a better and more reliable design. Also, there is no need to make conservative assumption if accurate data is available and therefore, designed marine structures will be more economical in this way. In this paper, anEnhanced Monte Carlo Joint Probability Analysis ‘EJPA’ is introduced and Chabahar area is considered as a case study. Input of the presented method is formed by random values drawnfrom the marginal distributions for tide, surge and significant wave height. Different dependency condition between wave height and storm surge can be supposed in the presented method and subsequently, the values for surge and tide will be added to one water level adopted to occur jointly with a significant wave height (Hs) Finally contour lines with different return periods can be obtained and it is shown that different situation should be considered for design purposes

کلیدواژه ها:

EJPA ، Joint Probability ، Monte Carlo ، Tide ، Wave Height ، Storm Surge