Trade Liberty Policy Despite Shocks and Fluctuations Affecting in Periods of Boom and Bust on Women's Employment

The present study explores the mechanism of trade effects despite the foreign exchange fluctuations and oil shocks on women's job opportunities in the periods of the recession and prosperity in the country using the Markov-switching Regime ARCH Model during ۱۹۸۴-۲۰۱۶. According to the results of the model estimation, Commercial freedom has a negative impact on women's job opportunities during the recession, which means that government spending in this period is mostly spent on imports. Foreign exchange rate fluctuations have a negative impact on women's job opportunities during the recession and with negative oil shocks, foreign exchange earnings are declined, and government spending is dedicated to import to cope up with inflation and this leads to the reduction of job opportunities and women’s employment. This has led to reduced job opportunities and reduced employment for women. Also, the impact of international trade variables, economic growth rate and positive oil shock on women's employment during the prosperity period is significant, which means that in a country with high trade openness, women's employment will also improve and there will be more job opportunities for women, which can help the country's employment. Therefore, government and private support for women's employment, self-employment, women's entrepreneurship and international trade opportunities can be a positive driver of women's employment growth.

کلیدواژه ها:

Trade ، export growth ، Employment of women ، Markov Switching Regime Model