The Analysis of Real Exchange Rate Volatility and Stock Exchange Return with PANEL-GARCH Approach (Case Study: D۸ Countries)

Stock returns of companies listed on the stock exchange is one of the most important criteria in assessing the macroeconomic. This study investigates the effect of exchange rate Volatility on the stock exchange Returns of D۸ countries. It takes monthly data during the period (۲۰۰۸:۱-۲۰۱۵:۶) constituting ۹۰ observations. At first we used Panel-GARCH model to estimate Exchange Rate Volatility Index, and then we used Panel data method to investigate the effect of index on the stock exchange return of D۸ countries. Simulation results show that exchange rate volatility affects positively and significantly on stock exchange return in four countries, namely Iran, Pakistan, Indonesia and Bangladesh. The variables of oil price, real interest rate, inflation rate, real exchange rate and gold price have been utilized for model analysis. Results show that the variables of real exchange rate and inflation rate have negative effects but oil price has positive effect on stock returns, while interest rate and gold price do not have any significant effect.

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Keywords:Stock Returns ، Exchange Rate Volatility ، D۸ Countries ، PANEL- GARCH Model. JEL Classification: E۴۴ ، E۳۲ ، F۳۱ ، C۳۳