Macroeconomic Shocks and Malaysian Tourism Industry: Evidence from a Structural VAR Model

Abstract   his study employs a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model to investigate the macroeconomic shocks on Malaysian tourism industry, especially how the economy dynamically responds to oil price shocks, exchange rates, changes in price level, exports, economic growth and tourism income during the study time period from January ۲۰۰۱ to December ۲۰۱۲. The results indicate that oil price shocks, economic growth, exchange rate, and exports have a contemporaneous inverse impact on tourism revenues except for consumer price index which has a positive impact. This study added instant information to manage tourism industry in Malaysia. The findings of the study are useful to implement a number of corrective measures for the promotion of tourism in a country.

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Keywords: Oil Price Shocks ، Exchange rate ، Inflation ، Exports ، economic growth ، Tourism Income ، SVAR Model ، Malaysia. JEL Classification: C۳۳ ، Z۳۲